South Carolinians could change the shape of the 2024 presidential race if they turn out in droves Feb. 24 to back former Gov. Nikki Haley over former President Donald Trump.
Face it: Trump’s threat to the American way of life is getting worse. Just a few days ago at a Conway rally, he doubled down on support for an enemy to democracy, Russia, and insulted the American military. Despite the adulation of his MAGA acolytes in rose-colored glasses, Trump’s embrace of authoritarianism over freedom is chilling. The Founding Fathers are rolling over in their graves.
So if South Carolinians erect a political hurdle by breathing life into Haley’s campaign on Feb. 24, they might make more Americans stop and face the music about Trump’s anti-American rhetoric.
Here’s how it could work: More than 3 million voters in South Carolina are qualified to vote in the Republican Party’s “first in the South” presidential preference primary in South Carolina. Why? Because only about 130,000 people turned out earlier this month in the Democratic equivalent.
All remaining registered voters — Democrats who didn’t turn out Feb. 3, independents and Republicans — are eligible to vote in the Feb. 24 primary.
Eight years ago in the competitive 2016 Republican primary, six candidates split 740,188 votes with Trump, who came out on top with 32.5%, followed by U.S. Sens. Marco Rubio (22.5%) and Ted Cruz (22.3%). If you assume the likely pool of GOP voters for the Feb. 24 primary
would be three-quarters of a million South Carolinians, that would leave about 2.25 million voters who could vote and make a real impact.
A poll this week showed Trump with 65% of support. If he pulls that amount — about 500,000 votes from people expected to turn out — and Haley gets about 250,000 from the same base, then Haley could defeat Trump if she captured 250,000 to 300,000 voters from the 2.25 million who are not projected to vote.
Again, it’s doable. But likely? Probably not. Yet necessary? Yes, because Trump is becoming increasingly unstable.
In Conway on Feb. 10, Trump attacked Haley for the absence of her husband on the campaign trail. That was a cheap shot because Michael Haley, a major with the S.C. Army National Guard, is deployed in Africa on a military assignment. Haley was right to fire back that Trump’s attack was out of line and ane insulting to our troops — something that should never come from a commander-in-chief, current or former.
Also in Conway, Trump made international headlines by suggesting he would encourage Russian aggression against U.S. allies. What? When did Russia, a longtime enemy of democracy, become cool to support? (Answer: Never.) President Joe Biden was right on target in calling Trump’s rhetoric “appalling.” We might have more earthy words for the levels of rhetorical depravity the former president is plumbing.
We hope Haley can shame Trump into a debate before the S.C. primary, but that probably won’t happen. So if you want to make a vote to support American democracy and our way of life, head to the polls Feb. 24 to vote for Haley, regardless of your political leaning. It’s just that important.
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