Why McCain Is Nearly Assured A Loss

I heard on the radio yesterday that McCain had a 4 percent chance of winning this election. Why does it sound so grim? Take a look at the New York Times’ election map.

They’ve been nice enough to put West Virginia and Georgia in McCain’s column (and to be fair, I think he’ll win those states, but it will be close). Their map also puts Penn. in Obama’s category, but we’ll pull it back out to swing state status for the purposes of this experiement.

In order for John McCain to win, he has to win Penn., Fla., N.C., Ind., Ohio, Mo., and Nev. All of them. Mo., Ind., N.C., and Fla. are all close and provide real chances for success. Penn., Ohio, and Nev. all have been polling solidly for Obama. It’s unlikely, but it’s possible that McCain could pull out a win.

In contrast, what does Barack Obama have to do to win? Of those seven states, he just has to win one of them.

John McCain has to win all of them. Barack Obama has to win one of them.