March Madness is upon us. All of us who remembered have filled out our brackets. (You owe that person $20, don’t forget.) Now, like anything with a whole bunch of variables and hot takes, we have some hard numbers on what to expect over the next few days.

The brains at FiveThirtyEight have crunched the numbers and give College of Charleston the best shot of any #13-seed team to win their opening round game.


Match-ups at the top and bottom ends of the brackets are predictably one-sided. One-seed UVA, for example, has a 98 percent chance of winning their game against the #16-seed Retrievers of University of Maryland, Baltimore County. But once you reach into the middle of the brackets, the seeds between #11 and #13 have some solid chances at upsets.

CofC comes into Friday’s game with a 20 percent chance of beating Auburn. For comparison, no other #13-seed was estimated to have a 15 percent chance to win their first round games. Before tip-off this afternoon, UNC-Greensboro only had an eight percent chance of winning against Gonzaga.


When it comes to advancing any farther, FiveThirtyEight gives CofC a five percent chance of getting to the 3rd round, but a less-than-one percent chance of making it any farther.

College of Charleston tips off against Auburn University tomorrow night at 7:30pm EDT from San Diego. You can watch the game nationwide on TruTV.

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