Hurricane cuts could create forecasting havoc

There’s one thing you can just about guarantee every summer: A hurricane will threaten the Holy City.

Through the years, we’ve learned the more advance warning we have, the better. People have more time to prepare with a time-tested routine of boarding up windows, strategically placing sandbags and heading to the grocery store to stock up on supplies. Others evacuate.

But with the Trump administration’s huge ongoing and planned cuts to federal staff and funding of the nation’s storm forecasting abilities, the storms of the future may pose more of a risk than ever before. And it’s not because of climate change. It’s because of changes that will scale back forecasting.

With hundreds of millions of dollars of cuts, forecasters will have less data, which will increase uncertainty and reduce accuracy of forecasts. And they’ll have less expertise thanks to forced retirements and firings. Bottom line, as U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Fla., said last week in a virtual news conference, “People will needlessly die.”

U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn, a senior Democrat who represents the peninsula in Congress, said during the briefing with former weather experts that it was “beyond comprehension” that anyone in office would seek to cut forecasters and staffing at an alphabet soup of disaster response agencies — the NHC, NWS, NOAA and FEMA. (Also known respectively as the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Federal Emergency Management Agency.)

“We have the responsibility to do what is necessary to not just give the warnings but also be prepared to respond to their (people’s) needs when they are presented” with weather challenges that are sure to come, Clyburn said.

The steps to creating hurricane forecasts

Dr. James Franklin, former branch chief of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Florida, outlined the data-driven research process developed through the years to forecast storms that impact the Atlantic and Gulf coasts and keep the public apprised of risks.

Looking at images. “First, when forecasters prepare the tropical weather outlooks, they’ll consult satellite-based wind and moisture analyses prepared by a NOAA institute and other satellite tools. From that, the institute helps NHC estimate the strength and size of hurricanes when they’re outside the range of reconnaissance aircraft.”

Getting jet data. When storms threaten land, the NHC relies on instrument readings from a NOAA jet that measures the currents that steer storms. Data can improve a forecast by up to 20%, he said. Other planes collect Doppler radar data from the hurricane core that can improve some model forecasts by 30%.

Using custom algorithms. When estimating a storm’s size and strength, researchers use an algorithm and an instrument developed by NOAA.

Modeling. To make a forecast, specialists use models that were developed by NOAA researchers.

Communicating. The NHC communicates timely graphics through its website to quantify and describe the risk of a storm.

But changes loom

But if all of the tools aren’t in the toolkit of forecasters, the process will suffer. Charleston meteorologists privately say they’re worried about federal slashes to staff and infrastructure because that will mean they won’t have as much data as they’ve had for accurate forecasts.

“You can’t bake the cake without the ingredients,” said one forecaster, who asked to remain anonymous.

Another later added, “The models are only as good as the data that goes in. … It’s definitely a little concerning.”

Here’s a look at how the just-passed federal budget is crippling for weather forecasting, according to members of Congress, veteran weather researchers and news reports:

Direct cuts. $200 million was removed for improved weather forecasting and community resiliency projects. NOAA will suffer an additional $2.2 billion in additional cuts in the year ahead, including elimination of its Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, the agency’s chief research arm.

Labs. More than two dozen weather and climate labs will be closed, which Wasserman Schultz said poses the risk of losing 75 years of research history.

Research planes. The budget killed a $400 million investment in new hurricane hunter planes and slashed flight hours in half, which will further reduce data collection, according to Dr. Robert Atlas, former director of NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) in South Florida. Also impacted: data collection from weather drones, gliders and balloons.

“There would be no more scientific support for NOAA’s hurricane hunter missions as well as for airborne drones and ocean gliders,” Atlas said during the July 9 conference. “As a result, vital data would no longer be assimilated into hurricane models or be available to forecasters and researchers.”

What it all means

Atlas said understaffing and cuts at weather offices would have a major impact on the ability to forecast in the future — the exact worry of Charleston meteorologists. Short-sighted cuts, in fact, could cost a lot in the long run, he said.

“The loss of AOML and its cooperative institute would result in a 20% to 40% decrease in hurricane forecast accuracy, which would cost the economy more than $10 billion for a single hurricane season — if only two hurricanes, major hurricanes were to hit the United States.”
Wasserman Schultz said Trump was targeting everyday Americans with reckless cuts.

“He’s abandoning everyone,” she said. “These cuts don’t even make financial sense. Every major hurricane can bring billions in damage, easily more than NOAA’s entire proposed budget. Killing off preventive investments invites steeper losses for taxpayers.”

Why it matters

A local meteorologist recalled how good forecasts during Hurricane Hugo in 1989 saved lives. Back then, federal forecasts gave 72 hours of warning with a 300-mile range of probable impact. Since then, with more data, forecasters routinely give five days of warning and a narrower 200-mile range of impact.

But if cuts in the just-passed budget bill actually happen as now expected, there will still be forecasts from the National Hurricane Center. But the quality of forecasting could be set back 25 years, the local professional said.

Some things in the federal government need to be cut, the other forecaster said. But not weather forecasting. “This is something that government does well. When you cut people and positions, holes are going to be left.”

Clyburn said the storm watches and warnings along the coast make a difference in people’s lives.

“There is absolutely no substitute for the warnings. The only way that people can get prepared or prepare themselves to get prepared is for these warnings to be in place. And the warnings are not possible if the funding is not there for those who are the experts and who are doing the warning.”

WHAT YOU CAN DO: If you want to have a say about what you think about weather cuts, contact your member of Congress — perhaps particularly those who voted for Trump’s budget. There’s still an appropriations process to go through, but agencies are working hard to implement cuts now.

What is storm surge?

Storm surge is the abnormal rise of water along the shore, due to the push of storm winds. Here are some of the average estimated effects of a hurricane’s winds and storm surge: