MORNING HEADLINES | When two storm systems are relatively close in the Atlantic Ocean about the same time, their dance can pose particular problems for forecasters.
The storms may lead to something called the Fujiwhara effect, which could happen over the next few days as Tropical Storm Humberto strengthens and churns northward and another storm develops to its east. As explained by an interesting story by S.C. Public Radio, this effect occurs if two low-pressure systems, such as tropical storms, begin to rotate around a common center. And the results are hard to predict as the storms could orbit each other, merge into a more powerful system or one may absorb the other.
Forecasters say Humberto today had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and is moving northwest at 10 mph. There currently are no local advisories or hazards because it’s still pretty far away.
But closer to the North American continent around the Dominican Republic is a disorganized tropical disturbance of thunderstorms and wind that has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression within 48 hours when it should reach the Bahamas.
The interaction of these two systems – as well as Hurricane Gabrielle now heading east – is what is stressing out forecasters. Noted the National Weather Service on Thursday morning: “The forecast becomes exponentially uncertain into early next week as a complicated set-up begins to take shape over the southeastern states and adjacent western Atlantic waters. … Tropical Storm Humberto formed in the late afternoon hours Wednesday, with models struggling to agree on track/intensity, especially as majority of guidance has it interacting with [tropical disturbance] 94L which further complicates the forecast. For now, the extended forecast will remain closely monitored over the next several days.”
This weekend’s area forecast – showers.
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