Talk to Palmetto State political analysts and most will tell you that three names are dominating their thinking about the 2026 1st Congressional District race at this early stage.
The twist? None of them are among the 14 declared candidates listed on the Federal Election Commission website.
First, they say, President Donald Trump will likely be the biggest single factor in the race, shaping the contours of the GOP primary in June and perhaps determining the outcome of the general election in November.
Second, incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace, who announced her campaign for governor in August of last year, will remain a constant presence in the race, as candidates in both parties define themselves in relationship to her famously mercurial style. Moreover, most observers still aren’t ruling out the possibility that she could change her mind between now and the March deadline — and file for her House seat instead of the governor’s race.
Finally, the memory of former Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham’s surprise 2018 win over Republican Katie Arrington continues to give Democrats hope and Republicans pause — despite a 2022 gerrymander that gave Republicans at least a six-point natural advantage in the district.
DuBose Kapeluck, a political science professor at the Citadel and the author of several books about Southern politics, told Statehouse Report that while Democrats might benefit from an energized base two years into Trump’s second term, the gerrymander will still likely be key to the outcome.
“Since it’s a midterm election and they’re the out-party, the national tides favor the Democrats,” Kapeluck said. “But since the redistricting, there are a lot more Republican voters in the district. And that just makes it a long shot for any Democratic candidate.”
The GOP field
Though the race still hasn’t taken shape, most insiders say two Republican candidates start with a leg up — Berkeley County Rep. Mark Smith and Charleston County Council member Jenny Honeycutt.
In separate Jan. 9 interviews, both candidates stressed their support for the Trump agenda, while noting their history of working across the aisle to get things done for their constituents.
Other issues each said they were focused on: affordability, national and personal security, fiscal conservatism and support for local infrastructure like roads and flooding projects.
But beyond the issues, both repeatedly brought the conversation back to their deep roots in the area and the need to protect what makes it special in the face of rapid growth.
“I’m a fourth-generation Lowcountry native, a first generation small business owner and have a long, vested interest in the 1st Congressional District,” said Smith, who entered the race in August 2024. “We’ve got something pretty special going in this area, and I’m looking forward to doing everything I can to preserve and protect it.”
Honeycutt, who noted that her time on council has been spent primarily on local quality-of-life issues in “this special place,” described similar priorities and concerns.
“As a mom and someone who’s lived here my entire life, served in local government and run a business, I have a passion to see the people who live here thrive, and that this area and way of life be preserved,” said Honeycutt, who announced in November of last year. “It’s about the future for my children, for all our children, and I feel like we can do better.”
According to FEC filings, Smith has raised $369,250.00 through the third quarter of 2025. Honeycutt will report her first official fundraising numbers later this month.
Other declared GOP candidates currently listed on the FEC website include (in alphabetical order):
Dan Brown: A Bluffton native, the former legislative aide and D.C. policy researcher says that “Washington won’t fix itself, and America’s future depends on a new generation of conservative leaders willing to fight for it.”
Total raised: No reporting to date.
Jay Byars: The Dorchester County councilman says he’s running “to back Donald Trump and the America First agenda” and “to protect the Lowcountry way of life and what makes our region special.” Total raised: $65,800.00
Logan Cunningham: A Beaufort County Council member, Cunningham says he’s “a Christian,” “a Trump supporter” and a “former educator” who’s running to “put the Lowcountry and America First” and restore “common sense leadership in Washington. Total raised: No reporting to date
Tyler Dykes: Pardoned by Trump for his part in the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, Dykes says he’s running because “our home is being destroyed” by mass immigration, high costs, declining school and water quality and more. Total raised: No reporting to date
Jack Ellison: According to press reports, “little information is publicly available” about the Charleston man who has reportedly filed for both the 1st Congressional District and U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham’s seat. Total raised: No reporting to date
Sam McCown: A Lowcountry physician, McCown says he’s running to “restore fiscal sanity, stop the woke agenda and secure our nation’s future,” with an emphasis on “border security” and “fewer regulations.”
Total Raised: $1,013,705.12 (including a candidate loan of $865,100.09)
Alex Pelbath: A retired Air Force lieutenant colonel, Pelbath says he wants to “end the flow of illegal immigrants,” “stop the woke nonsense,” and fight for an economy that works for Lowcountry families.” Total raised: $193,110.04
Bill Reeside: Calling himself “the reasonable Republican,” Reeside says he wants to “help President Trump … by putting legislation on his desk to stabilize Social Security for the long term.” Total raised: No reporting to date
And for the Democrats
On the Democratic side, most eyes are currently on Coast Guard veteran and Lowcountry attorney Mac Deford, who narrowly lost the 2024 primary race to 1st District Democratic nominee Michael B. Moore.
“I’m running because public service has shaped my entire life and right now, people in the Lowcountry are not being served by Washington,” he told Statehouse Report on Jan. 8. “We’ve got too many people up there that are more interested in promoting themselves than actually serving the people they purport to represent.”
His top issue? The high cost of living, which he said is “crushing” residents on everything from housing to health insurance to child care and more.
“We’ve got politicians who want to engage in chaos and culture wars and now sabre-rattling with our NATO allies,” he said. “And policies, frankly, that are just raising prices like the tariffs, all while completely avoiding accountability.”
Also garnering early attention on the Democratic side is Mayra Rivera-Vazquez, who’s worked public service law, nonprofit counseling and as a Democratic Party leader in the Beaufort area.
In a video on her campaign website, she says she opposes “tax cuts for the rich,” “masked men jumping out of unidentified cars to arrest our neighbors” and “making everything more expensive for runaway corporate greed.”
To date, Deford reports $104,459.30 raised, with Rivera-Vazquez reporting $38,642.00.
Max Eliot Diaz: Born in 2000, the Hanahan resident calls himself “a thoroughly working-class individual” who believes it’s “time the government considered the needs of the many rather than the greed of the few.” Total raised: $1,068.31
Matt Fulmer: A self-described waiter in the Lowcountry for more than a decade, Fulmer says he supports “guaranteed health care for every American,” a housing market that “favors renters and first-time buyers” and providing stronger services to families. Total raised: No reporting to date.
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