A chart that a friend forwarded recently has been top of mind for the whole week.
It shows the “diploma divide” – a red/blue graphic of the statewide percentage of adults with college degrees and whether they voted in 2024 for the Democrat, Kamala Harris, or the Republican, Donald Trump.
It’s not surprising that blue-state voters were more educated – this is something that political analysts have been talking about for years.
What is surprising is looking at how 17 of the 18 more educated states voted blue. Only Utah (39.1% adults with college degrees) voted Republican.
And in the 32 states that had a lower share of adults with a college education? Thirty voted for Trump. Only Delaware (#23) and New Mexico (#41) voted for Harris.
America’s polarization couldn’t be clearer based on where you live and how educated your state is. South Carolina, by the way, ranked 34th with 33.3% of adults with college degrees.
The chart came from the Age of Disruption Substack post by Washington lobbyist Bruce Mehlman, who served as an assistant U.S. secretary of commerce under President George W. Bush.
He explained the growing “diploma divide” this way: “It was stark in 2024: 17 of the 18 states with the highest share of college-educated voters voted for Harris, 17 of the bottom 18 for Trump.
“The educational divide explains profound policy differences across myriad issues, though it’s unclear whether university studies push students politically-leftward or more liberal people are likelier to pursue college degrees in the first place.”
If you dive into the chart a little deeper, you can see swing states that will likely be key for the 2028 presidential candidates. On the blue side of the dividing line are Maine (#17) and Oregon (#18), although after political shenanigans in each state in the last year, it’s doubtful they would turn red.
Below the red/blue break, though, are these three states that have been key players in past elections: North Carolina (36.4% with college degrees), Pennsylvania (36.3%) and Georgia (36.3%).
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to predict both parties will throw a lot of resources (again) into these states to try to win their electoral votes – and swing the election their way. In fact, these three states have a total of 51 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
Other targets for Dems to boost turnout in their favor: Arizona (34.7% college educated), Wisconsin (34.6%) and Michigan (33.3%). Conversely, Republicans might want to amp it up in New Hampshire (41.5%), New Jersey (44.5%) and New Mexico (31.8%).
Now let’s say you dive another level deeper in thinking about all of these numbers. Ask yourself why less-educated states like South Carolina vote red.
Is it because Republicans are better organized? Is it because the party and its politicians intentionally prey on less-educated voters to swing them by focusing on polarizing culture-war issues? While all states are bombarded by the culture wars, perhaps these lower-educated voters are more susceptible to negative or fear-based messages on red-meat issues of immigration, gender, race and more.
Or maybe the Democratic machines in blue-voting states are competing better than in the red states of the South and other areas with Republican messaging.
More than anything, the “diploma divide” chart offers an interesting look that can drive strategy in the election ahead.
Mehlman concludes, “Remedying this problem [of polarization] will take broader societal effort (systemic reforms across politics, media, public policy that rebuild trust). But individuals have agency here also.
“You can be part of the solution. How? Two of my recommendations from “How to Navigate an Age of Disruption”: (a) Balance your media diet and (b) Be curious about why others feel as they do. As Morgan Housel recommends we all ask, “Whose views do I criticize that I would actually agree with if I lived in their shoes?”
Andy Brack is editor and publisher of the Charleston City Paper and Statehouse Report. Have a comment? Send to: feedback@statehousereport.com
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