2026 GOP gubernatorial primary is race to right

With five expected GOP candidates now in the 2026 gubernatorial race, South Carolina political observers say the party’s primary is already shaping up as a race to the right. Meanwhile, state Democrats are still trying to get their acts together.

According to Winthrop University political scientist Scott Huffmon, that’s because the state GOP has “evolved into a more activist-style” party since this century’s Tea Party era, when a wave of new voters got involved in Republican politics.

And that means this year’s GOP candidates — Greenville businesswoman and Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, Spartanburg state Sen. Josh Kimbrell, First District U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace, Fifth District U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman and S.C. Attorney General Alan Wilson of Columbia — are all working to deliver a message that appeals to a highly engaged conservative electorate.

“They’re going to keep running further to the right and hitting all the hot-button issues,” Huffmon said this week.. “We’re going to hear DEI [diversity, equity, inclusion], we’re going to hear ‘woke,’ we’re going to hear about a tsunami of socialism coming in.”

Recent news reports suggest that dynamic is already starting to play out, with Mace’s use of a transgender slur at an Aug. 11 town hall, and Norman’s push to gerrymander the state’s only Democratic congressional district, long held by U.S. Rep. James Clyburn, out of existence.

But in addition to those kinds of candidate-specific issues, a review of the GOP contestants’ websites and public addresses shows all have chosen to spotlight three issues that speak directly to conservative voters — eliminating the state income tax, expanding the state’s school choice program and the “DOGE-ing” South Carolina. Here’s what you need to know on each.

1: Eliminate the state income tax

Since the days of President Ronald Reagan, few issues have set Republican primary voters’ hearts aflutter quite like income tax cuts.

But the devil is in the details – as GOP leaders in the S.C. legislature learned the hard way last session when their much-touted tax cut plan collapsed amid reports it would raise taxes on 60% of state residents.

“As with any policy,” University of South Carolina economist Joseph Von Nessen told Statehouse Report on Aug. 14, “there are going to be tradeoffs.”

On the positive side, Von Nessen said, eliminating the state income tax would likely lead to stronger small business formation.

“Small businesses often file taxes at the individual rate,” Von Nessen said. “So when the individual income tax is reduced, that can make South Carolina more competitive relative to other states.”

But the challenge, he noted, is making the math work.

“The tradeoff is that that lost revenue has to be addressed in some way, either by cutting spending or capturing new revenue.”

According to the S.C. Revenue and Fiscal Affairs Office, income taxes will produce about $6.5 billion this year, or 45% of overall state revenue. That’s why experts say eliminating the income tax would likely force lawmakers to increase other taxes — possibly including the sales tax, which could wind up raising taxes for many, if not most, state residents. Several years ago, state lawmakers passed Act 388 which greatly limited another stream of revenue – property taxes – in favor of more sales taxes, which economists criticized then.

“Sales taxes tend to be more regressive than income taxes,” Von Nessen said. “Are we looking at changing the nature of that tax, and if so, would it make [overall taxes] more progressive or regressive?”

2. Universal school choice

Earlier this year, state lawmakers passed the state’s third school voucher program since 2020, after seeing the first two struck down by the S.C. Supreme Court. Under the new plan, 15,000 families would be eligible to receive up to $7,500 to send their children to the private school of their choice.

Sam Aaron, policy director of the right-leaning S.C. Policy Council, said a universal program would ensure that every child has an opportunity to attend a good school.

“School choice allows parents to pick an education plan that’s specifically beneficial to their child, as opposed to the one-size-fits-all approach of public school,” Aaron said. “And in areas where the public schools are struggling, it’s the only way to get a kid out of that system and into one that works for them.”

But other advocates, such as S.C. Education Association President Dena Renee Crews, argue that public dollars need to stay in public schools, particularly with underfunded systems already struggling with crumbling infrastructure, teacher shortages, and major technology challenges. Particularly hard hit by these issues, she noted, are rural school districts, five of which the state has taken over in recent years.

“We honor every parent’s right to do what they think is best for their child,” Crews said. “But when we take public dollars away from public schools, how do we expect any of those problems to get better?” she said.

3: DOGE South Carolina

With President Donald Trump still the top polling political leader in S.C., all five Republican candidates are promising to bring one of his signature initiatives — the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) — to the Palmetto State.

Led early by tech billionaire Elon Musk, DOGE officials have claimed to have cut anywhere from $55 billion to $160 billion in federal spending, though independent budget analysts say the figure is closer to $1.5 billion.

Nevertheless, gubernatorial candidates like Evette say an S.C. version would be a useful tool to cut state spending.

“I’ll bring real-world accountability to Columbia by slashing wasteful spending, cutting red tape, and creating S.C.O.G.E – to ensure our government serves the people, not the bureaucracy,” Evette says on her website.

But other S.C. leaders who’ve studied the state’s budget process say that a DOGE effort would be duplicative at best.

“DOGE is just a talking point,” Charleston Democratic Sen. Ed Sutton said, name-checking the seven offices, agencies and committees that are already tasked with cutting waste. “I don’t see how an eighth committee is going to do what the seven others haven’t already accomplished.”

What’s more, he argues, the whole conversation is one that GOP candidates would be wise to avoid.

“Republicans have been in charge of state government for the past 20 years,” Sutton said. “So if there really is all this waste to find, that’s on them.”