Even before interim U.S. Sen. Darline Graham won a Tuesday runoff bid to replace her brother on the Republican ballot in November, this year’s race for someone to serve a six-year term in the U.S. Senate was weird. In fact, as we said last week, it’s the oddest in the 72 years since Strom Thurmond became the first person in the country to win a Senate seat as a write-in candidate.
Graham beat U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman by 5% in a rough-and-tumble Tuesday contest where Graham’s home area of the Upstate went to Norman but she carried the Midlands, Pee Dee and Lowcountry.
So now with Graham running against Democratic nominee Annie Andrews, the November race pits two women against each other in a state that doesn’t particularly like women legislators. The South Carolina General Assembly only has 24 women among 170 state lawmakers in two chambers. That’s just 14% in a state where 52% of the population is female.
Before Graham’s brother, four-term Republican Lindsey Graham, died unexpectedly on July 11, Andrews had an uphill battle – despite his unpopularity with the far right wing of his party. But he was close with President Donald Trump, who heartily backed Darline Graham at an Horry County rally. That pressure was critical in her 18,069-vote statewide victory. In Horry County, she got 16,841 more votes than Norman.
After Darline Graham was appointed in July to finish her brother’s current term, some weren’t sure she would run for the full term. But she topped nine other candidates, including another congressman and former governor, to make it into the Aug. 25 runoff.
Now, Graham starts out ahead with just 10 weeks until election day. Polling shows a generic Republican congressional candidate in South Carolina has a 10-point advantage over a Democrat, said Winthrop University pollster Scott Huffmon.
“If Graham can stick to talking points, not give Dr. Andrews any ammo with gaffes and refuse to be baited into fighting with Andrews where Andrews has the high ground, Graham just has to play defense,” Huffmon told the Charleston City Paper.
So there’s a shaky path to victory for Andrews – but only if all of the stars align. Consider:
Opting out. With South Carolina voters’ low support for women legislators, those who cast ballots for Norman may be so frustrated by election day that they stay home. That might cut into Graham’s 10-point advantage.
Experience. Voters overall could decide to sit out the election if they’re irked with the general lack of experience by both major party candidates. Graham struggled in a recent debate over a foreign policy question. Andrews ran a race for Congress two years ago but has not held elective office. Neither side would gain much of an advantage here.
Straight tickets. Andrews can tout her professional credentials as a doctor who’s been in the trenches saving lives. Graham’s qualifications are thinner, but because voters don’t really know either of them, South Carolinians may just punch the “R” ballot because that’s what too many are used to. Advantage: Graham.
Black turnout. State Democrats in June nominated a slate of Black challengers for statewide offices and are fielding candidates in every S.C. House race. That might pull a strong turnout by Black voters, who have underperformed in recent years. Advantage: Andrews.
Narrower Senate battles. Across the country, Democrats are desperately trying to secure control of the Senate. That might put South Carolina in play by some Democratic funders – and take GOP money out of South Carolina to put it in other races. Possible advantage for Andrews, but not likely.
Ugliness. If the Graham-Andrews race turns ugly with personal attacks and lots of negative advertising, more people could sit out election day. Possible slight advantage to Andrews.
Trump. If the president, whose popularity is sinking across the country, continues to insert himself in South Carolina’s U.S. Senate race, there could be a consequence, particularly among miffed Norman supporters who stay home or Democrats and independents who want to send a message. Advantage: Andrews.
Remember what Trump said in the runoff to GOP voters: “What I really want you to do is pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot.”
In November, more than just Republicans might heed that request – much to the displeasure of Graham.
Andy Brack is editor and publisher of Statehouse Report and the Charleston City Paper. Have a comment? Send to: feedback@statehousereport.com.
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