HAPPY JULY 4: Take some time today to read the Declaration of Independence.
- BIG STORY: State could lose under the new Trump budget
- LOWCOUNTRY, Ariail: It Depends Day
- BRACK: Graham still favored in U.S. Senate seat
- MYSTERY PHOTO: House and tree
- FEEDBACK: Send us your thoughts
What’s ahead: Fewer insured, more hungry, higher power bills
State could lose big under the new Trump budget
News analysis | With congressional Republicans celebrating this week’s final passage of President Donald Trump’s 940-page budget megabill, nonpartisan analysts tell Statehouse Report that South Carolinians should expect to see major economic impacts as its provisions begin to take effect.
Those impacts, they say, will likely include lower income taxes, higher health-care and electric bills, fewer rural hospitals and nursing homes, and a slowdown in the state’s fast-growing electric vehicle (EV) and battery industry as federal subsidies disappear.
But perhaps the biggest long term impact, economists note, will arise from the bill’s bottom-line budget math — roughly $5 trillion in new and extended tax cuts, $1.5 trillion in spending reductions, and $3.5 trillion in new debt. They say all of that spending could ultimately lead to higher consumer interest rates on items like home mortgages, car loans and credit card purchases.
According to supporters, including S.C.’s senior U.S. senator, Senate Budget Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham, the tradeoffs in the bill will strengthen the country.
“We did it,” Graham said in a July 3 social media post as the bill headed to Trump’s desk for signature. “The One Big Beautiful Bill will soon be law and Americans will be far safer and more prosperous because of it.”
But Democratic opponents like S.C. 6th District Rep. James Clyburn say the bill is a giveaway to wealthy Americans at the expense of the poor and middle class.
“Trump said people “aren’t going to feel any” of the massive cuts to health care in his big ugly bill,” Clyburn said in an X post as the final vote approached. “Tell that to the 17 million people who are about to lose their health coverage, Donald.”
From the start, Trump has argued the bill will unleash the American economy and cut the deficit. But economists, energy experts and social service providers say the big picture is complicated — and that understanding exactly what the average South Carolina resident will be giving up in exchange for a modest tax cut is key to judging the bill’s overall merit.
Higher electric bills, fewer high-paying EV jobs
In response to a direct request from Trump, congressional Republicans added several last-minute items to the megabill targeting renewable energy production, including the elimination of several Biden-era renewable energy subsidies and a new tax on most solar and wind equipment.
Charleston’s Eddy Moore of the Alliance for Clean Energy said the bill would do real damage to the state’s economic and energy prospects in a July 1 interview.
“Around the country and in South Carolina specifically, we’ll see higher electric bills and a lot of job losses,” Moore said, noting that renewables are the state’s fastest-growing power source. “But the even bigger damage is the attempt to rewind history and go backward while the rest of the world keeps moving forward on energy policy.”
Most concerning, he said, is the rollback of federal electric vehicle (EV) tax credits and battery investments, which new S.C. factories and plants are relying on .
“This bill is threatening literally the largest economic development projects in our state’s history,” Moore said. “It’s almost certain we’ll lose some of these companies.”
Fewer rural hospitals and nursing homes — and fewer insured
While much of the coverage about health care cuts in the bill has focused on its strict new work requirements for Medicaid, the less-discussed provision eliminating the Medicaid provider tax, which S.C. uses to unlock billions in federal funding, is seen as a particular danger to Palmetto State hospitals.
In fact, according to S.C. Hospital Association President and CEO Thornton Kirby, the move could create a $2.4 billion hole in South Carolina’s Medicaid budget, which provides a major source of revenue for state hospitals.
“Many hospitals would not be able to survive the way they are without financial help,” Kirby told S.C. Public Radio on June 26. “If you take $2.4 billion out of the state’s hospital community, you’re going to see layoffs, you’re going to see service reductions, and [in] the worst case scenario, closures.”
Further stress on S.C. hospitals and nursing homes will likely come from the bill’s broader Medicaid and health-care cuts, which could force emergency rooms to provide uncompensated care to about 230,000 residents who stand to lose their insurance coverage.
“These cuts would threaten providers across the state, for whom Medicaid dollars basically pay the rent,” Columbia-based policy analyst John Ruoff told Statehouse Report earlier this year. “And that would seriously raise costs for everyone else because those provider costs would have to be shifted onto the rest of us.”
Less food assistance, ‘more hungry people’
Another major source of cost savings in the GOP plan comes from cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, which provides food aid to more than 40 million Americans. The savings mostly result from additional work requirements and shifting some costs onto state governments.
About 145,000 South Carolinians will lose some or all food assistance under the bill, according to S.C. Appleseed Legal Justice Center, which works on behalf of poor and working class families throughout the state.
“With the increased work requirements and all the new paperwork, SNAP is going to be more costly for the state to administer, with fewer people being fed,” said Appleseed Director of Policy Sue Berkowitz in a July 1 interview.
Further, she warned, private philanthropy is unlikely to be able to close the food gap, with SNAP currently providing nine meals for every one distributed by Palmetto State food banks, churches and other nonprofits.
“As we lose all of that, we’re going to see more hungry people, and health care outcomes for the people of our state going down,” she said. “It’s not making South Carolinians better, it’s making South Carolinians poorer.”
President Trump is expected to sign the bill into law at a July 4 White House signing ceremony.
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It Depends Day
Award-winning cartoonist Robert Ariail has a special knack for poking a little fun in just the right way. This week, he takes on that freedom may be contracting, not expanding, in the United States.
- Love this week’s cartoon or hate it? Did he go too far, or not far enough? Send your thoughts to feedback@statehousereport.com.
Graham still favored in U.S. Senate seat
By Andy Brack | Looks like four-term U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham has a pedigreed political challenger for the Republican primary in 2026, but he’s probably grinning privately because he may just have the perfect opponent.
Former Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who’s been pretty quiet in politics for a few years, said he’ll challenge Graham next year for essentially not being conservative enough – even though President Donald Trump has already vigorously endorsed Graham and tasked an ally to run his campaign.
Graham, who criticized Trump when both were running for president in 2016, morphed into the lackey of lackeys when Trump won the nomination. Since then, there’s been a hot bromance that cooled some, but the relationship remains close, on the golf course and off.
So with Trump being the only real endorsement that matters in MAGA-fueled Republican politics, it’s kind of hard to see Bauer’s path to winning the GOP nomination.
Bauer, who served eight years as lieutenant governor, last was in elective politics in 2011. Since then, he’s flirted with running for various congressional seats and worked as a political commentator and real estate developer.
Now, he seems to be trying to out-Trump Graham as the America First candidate in the GOP primary. On his campaign website, Bauer, who didn’t return a phone call, touted himself as the “only America First candidate South Carolina can trust to stand with President Trump, take on the establishment, and put our values first.”
Winthrop University pollster Scott Huffmon explains there are three branches of the Republican Party these days and “most of the time, their behavior and preferences are utterly identical.”
First, there are the Make America Great Again acolytes who are fiercely loyal to Trump – and where the endorsement of Graham is a big deal. Then are the America Firsters, who may be disappointed with foreign entanglements that Graham has supported and who may be a little skeptical of Trump after he pushed the U.S. to participate in a limited bombing of Iran. Finally are more traditional Republicans who don’t particularly like Trump but wouldn’t vote for a Democrat until hell froze over.
In Bauer’s favor are lower-than-expected polling numbers in South Carolina for Graham. In May, some 40% of South Carolinians disapproved of how Graham was handling his job as senator. But when you pull out Democrats, that number dropped to 18% of Republican respondents. Fifty-five percent said they approved; 26% said they weren’t sure.
But even if Bauer were able to peel off some of the America First faction, getting to 50% in a primary could be kind of tough, and not only because Trump’s endorsement means something. There are two other things going on.
First, Graham has a significant cash-on-hand advantage with almost $16 million in the bank on March 31. He’s also a proven fund-raiser and will be able to get more cash if he needs it to be on the ballot in November 2026.
Second, Bauer has been out of the political eye for more than a dozen years – a long time in politics. During that time – and despite being an early supporter of Trump – he hasn’t been about to get a job in the Trump administration, even after browbeating friends in Washington. When Trump nominated Bauer in 2020 to be U.S. ambassador to Belize, he wasn’t able to get through the confirmation process.
So while it’s not going to be comfortable for Graham to spend a little cash to beat Bauer in the GOP primary, he’s probably grinning like a Cheshire cat because he’s got Trump’s endorsement, he can likely count on the MAGA wing of the party and he knows there’s something that kept Bauer from becoming an ambassador that could come out if politicking were to turn nasty.
Andy Brack is editor and publisher of Statehouse Report and the Charleston City Paper. Have a comment? Send to: feedback@statehousereport.com.
House and tree
Here’s a stunning house somewhere in South Carolina. Identify it and tell us why it’s special. If you have a good mystery stumper to share with fellow readers, send to: feedback@statehousereport.com.
The last Mystery Photo we ran was on June 13, which Allan Peel of San Antonio, Texas, identified as “a popular ‘Instagrammable’ photo-op landmark in the Huntington Beach State Park on Murrells Inlet. It depicts two colorful, larger-than-life, beach-themed Adirondack chairs on either side of a crossroads sign.
“Together, the sign and chairs have become an unofficial photo landmark at Huntington Beach State Park — kind of like a visual ‘you were here’ stamp. They also promote the park’s laid-back coastal spirit that invites wanderlust visitors to simply slow down and savor the beautiful and natural surroundings.”
Others who correctly identified the picture were Penny Forrester of Tallahassee, Fla.; George Graf of Palmyra, Va.; and Frank Bouknight of Summerville.
Send us your thoughts
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Statehouse Report, founded in 2001 as a weekly legislative forecast that informs readers about what is going to happen in South Carolina politics and policy, is provided by email to you at no charge every Friday.
- Editor and publisher: Andy Brack, 843.670.3996
- Statehouse bureau chief: Jack O’Toole
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