Incumbency generally has its advantages in the General Assembly. But maybe not this year.
If you dig into the record number of people who voted early by Thursday – more than 90,000 South Carolinians – it’s clear that something big is going on.
Exactly what that is kind of murky. Democrats across the state are claiming that the huge turnout on May 26 proved voters wanted to send a crisp message that a messy, unprecedented, last-minute effort by Republicans to redraw congressional lines to try to get a sweep of congressional seats was unacceptable.
Perhaps. But deeper politics may be at work. With May 26 being the first day of early in-person voting, the political ground shifted in the state Senate. Enough Republican state senators debating the redistricting effort in a special session finally had some political cover to oppose the gerrymander. They knew that if they passed the bill, the ballots already cast would have to be thrown out. And in turn, that would cause the courts to get involved and it could throw out any shiny new, mid-decade congressional map because it would mess with the sanctity of voters’ ballots and cause even more confusion in a primary filled with turbidity.
In other words, a few senators who previously voted to approve the redistricting bill on Tuesday had an opportunity to shut it down based on anything from the rule of law to fear that the courts would embarrass the legislature.
But those very same Republican senators, a minority of which teamed with 12 Democrats to tank the bill, might have been looking at something far more interesting to save their political hides – the numbers of Republicans who went to the polls.
The number of primary voters on May 26, that first day of early voting, shows up to 10 times as many Democrats in purple or blue counties went to the polls. From tiny Allendale County, where 182 people voted Tuesday compared to 20 on the first day in 2024, to Charleston (6,788 in 2026 versus 530 in 2024) and Richland (7,451 in 2024 versus 562 in 2024) counties, Democrats certainly turned out.
But look at red counties like Anderson, where 1,226 people voted Tuesday, compared to 377 two years earlier on the first day. Or Greenville (3,713 this year versus 1,145 in 2024) or Lexington (2,410 in 2026 versus 585 in 2024) and York (2,416 this year compared to 402 in 2024) counties. These results show three to five times as many voters in these Republican-leaning counties went to the polls, too. And more than likely, their message was not to stop the redistricting bill. More likely: they wanted to show sheer frustration with politicians who weren’t listening to them and acting on issues like expensive health care costs, the price of food, rising gas prices and overall affordability.
This conclusion is borne out in a new Winthrop Poll, which shows 67% of Palmetto State residents say groceries are difficult or very difficult to afford. Almost three in five say health care and housing costs are tough to pay for. Even more disturbing: 61% say going out to dinner isn’t affordable and seven out of 10 can’t afford a week-long vacation.
In other words, a majority of South Carolinians are saying that the American dream is starting to elude them. And on the first day of early primary voting, some 56,000 went to the polls.
If their early votes were grounded in frustration or outrage, Republican incumbents at the Statehouse – as well as Democratic ones – have a reason to be concerned.
It’s also why the general election in November could be a real “change election” that reshapes the make-up of the General Assembly – especially in a year in which state Democrats put up 124 candidates for 124 House seats. That was a first in a long, long time.
Andy Brack is editor and publisher of the Charleston City Paper and Statehouse Report. Have a comment? Send to: feedback@statehousereport.com.
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