By Jack O’Toole, Statehouse bureau | Democrats looking to break the longstanding Republican lock on South Carolina politics are well aware of the old joke about how you eat an elephant: one bite at a time.
Currently, two of the bites they’d most like to take this year are dominating the pre-election headlines — the U.S. Senate race between Lowcountry pediatrician Annie Andrews and appointed Republican Sen. Darline Graham and the 1st District contest featuring Democratic retired Vice Admiral Nancy Lacore and GOP Charleston County Council member Jenny Honeycutt.
But there’s a third bite that election models show is also within Democratic striking distance heading into election day: breaking the Republican supermajority in the S.C. House of Representatives, where Democratic candidates are running in all 124 seats for the first time in a generation.
And while Democratic leaders are trying to manage expectations carefully — the phrase “cautiously optimistic” came up more than once this week in conversations with party operatives — some sound almost bullish when they talk about the Statehouse state of play.
What the pros are saying
According to former state Democratic Party Chair Trav Robertson, it all comes down to the bread-and-butter issue that’s fueling what pollsters increasingly describe as a likely blue-wave midterm election: affordability.
“I’ve got a political secret I want to share with you,” Robertson told the City Paper this week. “Are you ready? Republicans buy gas, too. Republicans buy eggs, too. Republicans buy milk. Republicans buy steak. And it all goes back to what Bill Clinton and James Carville used to say — ‘it’s the economy, stupid.’”
To illustrate his point, Robertson imagined a typical GOP family living on the outskirts of one of the state’s major metros.
“You’ve got these folks who can’t afford a house in downtown Charleston or Columbia or Greenville, so they’re driving 30 miles up the road to their jobs,” Robertson said. “But now, with gas prices so high, they can’t afford to drive to work in the place they can’t afford to live. Some people just don’t understand how an economy like this can impact an election.”
Nevertheless, Republican campaign professionals like Michael Mulé, president of the Charleston-based GOP consulting firm UPT Strategies, note that S.C. is a ruby-red state for a reason: Most voters in S.C. are actually conservative Republicans.
“South Carolinians know what’s at stake and the choice couldn’t be clearer,” Mulé said. “Republicans remain focused on cutting taxes, fixing roads, bringing good-paying jobs and opportunities to our state, protecting our children, and putting parents and families first.”
He added: “Democrats’ vision of higher taxes and more regulations would mean higher costs for working families, lacks common sense, and won’t sell here.”
What the numbers say
On paper, the Democrats’ challenge doesn’t look like a long climb up Mount Everest: With 35 seats now, they would need a net gain of seven seats to break the GOP supermajority in the chamber.
The Democrats’ magic number: 42 seats.
And where do the major websites that model Statehouse races around the country currently put S.C. House Democrats when all the votes are counted next month?
Between 40 and 43 seats.
Specifically, Poliwave puts the number at 40, State Navigate at 41 and On Point Politics puts it at 43. Meanwhile, 99chambers’ two models, which use different methods to gauge likely outcomes, put the number at 41 and 43. (Note: Model projections are updated as fresh data becomes available and can change frequently.)
In all cases, most potential Democratic pickups are in the Lowcountry and Midlands areas of the state.
Still, without public polling to rely on in S.C. House races, the models are based on varying mixes of district voting history, national and state-level turnout estimates and simulated election runs.
In short, they’re interesting. And they may even turn out to be mostly right. But the two oldest clichés in politics still apply: Elections are decided by those who actually show up and vote — and the only poll that matters is the one on election day.
What would breaking the supermajority mean?
Retiring Democratic S.C. Rep. Spencer Wetmore of James Island has served in the House under a simple Republican majority and the current GOP supermajority.
And as she explained to the City Paper this week, the differences were subtle but real.
“There are a lot of things the Democrats can do strategically when they’re more than one-third of the chamber,” she said. “They’re almost all procedural maneuvers, but sometimes they really matter.”
For instance, she noted, two-thirds supermajorities are required to suspend rules, override vetoes, set special session agendas and put constitutional amendments on the ballot — meaning that in each of those circumstances, the GOP would have to negotiate with Democrats before acting.
To demonstrate the power of that kind of leverage in action, Wetmore points to the state budget, where several GOP members of the S.C. Freedom Caucus have consistently voted no, prompting Republican leaders to compromise with Democrats to get the budget passed.
“The rise of the Freedom Caucus has actually been one of the most empowering things for Democrats that ever could have happened,” she said.
As for the Democrats’ chances of reaching 42 seats this election season, Wetmore said it was certainly possible if the stars aligned, but stressed the need for long-term political muscle-building.
“We could get lucky this year,” she said. “But it’s going to take a multi-year investment for Democrats to build up the infrastructure, candidate support and messaging for us to break the Republican supermajority in this state in the long run.”
Early voting is currently underway. Election day is Nov. 3.
Jack O’Toole is Statehouse bureau chief for Statehouse Report and the Charleston City Paper. Have a comment? Send to: feedback@statehousereport.com
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