BIG STORY: Democrats eye crack in GOP’s S.C. House supermajority
ROUNDUP: Mace, Haley blast ‘disgusting’ GOP ad in Ohio
LOWCOUNTRY, Ariail: New measurement for time
BRACK: America’s fighting spirit is alive and well
MYSTERY PHOTO: Peacock
FEEDBACK: Send us your thoughts
Democrats eye crack in GOP’s S.C. House supermajority
By Jack O’Toole, Statehouse bureau | Democrats looking to break the longstanding Republican lock on South Carolina politics are well aware of the old joke about how you eat an elephant: one bite at a time.
Currently, two of the bites they’d most like to take this year are dominating the pre-election headlines — the U.S. Senate race between Lowcountry pediatrician Annie Andrews and appointed Republican Sen. Darline Graham and the 1st District contest featuring Democratic retired Vice Admiral Nancy Lacore and GOP Charleston County Council member Jenny Honeycutt.
But there’s a third bite that election models show is also within Democratic striking distance heading into election day: breaking the Republican supermajority in the S.C. House of Representatives, where Democratic candidates are running in all 124 seats for the first time in a generation.
And while Democratic leaders are trying to manage expectations carefully — the phrase “cautiously optimistic” came up more than once this week in conversations with party operatives — some sound almost bullish when they talk about the Statehouse state of play.
What the pros are saying
According to former state Democratic Party Chair Trav Robertson, it all comes down to the bread-and-butter issue that’s fueling what pollsters increasingly describe as a likely blue-wave midterm election: affordability.
“I’ve got a political secret I want to share with you,” Robertson told the City Paper this week. “Are you ready? Republicans buy gas, too. Republicans buy eggs, too. Republicans buy milk. Republicans buy steak. And it all goes back to what Bill Clinton and James Carville used to say — ‘it’s the economy, stupid.’”
To illustrate his point, Robertson imagined a typical GOP family living on the outskirts of one of the state’s major metros.
“You’ve got these folks who can’t afford a house in downtown Charleston or Columbia or Greenville, so they’re driving 30 miles up the road to their jobs,” Robertson said. “But now, with gas prices so high, they can’t afford to drive to work in the place they can’t afford to live. Some people just don’t understand how an economy like this can impact an election.”
Nevertheless, Republican campaign professionals like Michael Mulé, president of the Charleston-based GOP consulting firm UPT Strategies, note that S.C. is a ruby-red state for a reason: Most voters in S.C. are actually conservative Republicans.
“South Carolinians know what’s at stake and the choice couldn’t be clearer,” Mulé said. “Republicans remain focused on cutting taxes, fixing roads, bringing good-paying jobs and opportunities to our state, protecting our children, and putting parents and families first.”
He added: “Democrats’ vision of higher taxes and more regulations would mean higher costs for working families, lacks common sense, and won’t sell here.”
What the numbers say
On paper, the Democrats’ challenge doesn’t look like a long climb up Mount Everest: With 35 seats now, they would need a net gain of seven seats to break the GOP supermajority in the chamber.
The Democrats’ magic number: 42 seats.
And where do the major websites that model Statehouse races around the country currently put S.C. House Democrats when all the votes are counted next month?
Between 40 and 43 seats.
Specifically, Poliwave puts the number at 40, State Navigate at 41 and On Point Politics puts it at 43. Meanwhile, 99chambers’ two models, which use different methods to gauge likely outcomes, put the number at 41 and 43. (Note: Model projections are updated as fresh data becomes available and can change frequently.)
In all cases, most potential Democratic pickups are in the Lowcountry and Midlands areas of the state.
Still, without public polling to rely on in S.C. House races, the models are based on varying mixes of district voting history, national and state-level turnout estimates and simulated election runs.
In short, they’re interesting. And they may even turn out to be mostly right. But the two oldest clichés in politics still apply: Elections are decided by those who actually show up and vote — and the only poll that matters is the one on election day.
What would breaking the supermajority mean?
Retiring Democratic S.C. Rep. Spencer Wetmore of James Island has served in the House under a simple Republican majority and the current GOP supermajority.
And as she explained to the City Paper this week, the differences were subtle but real.
“There are a lot of things the Democrats can do strategically when they’re more than one-third of the chamber,” she said. “They’re almost all procedural maneuvers, but sometimes they really matter.”
For instance, she noted, two-thirds supermajorities are required to suspend rules, override vetoes, set special session agendas and put constitutional amendments on the ballot — meaning that in each of those circumstances, the GOP would have to negotiate with Democrats before acting.
To demonstrate the power of that kind of leverage in action, Wetmore points to the state budget, where several GOP members of the S.C. Freedom Caucus have consistently voted no, prompting Republican leaders to compromise with Democrats to get the budget passed.
“The rise of the Freedom Caucus has actually been one of the most empowering things for Democrats that ever could have happened,” she said.
As for the Democrats’ chances of reaching 42 seats this election season, Wetmore said it was certainly possible if the stars aligned, but stressed the need for long-term political muscle-building.
“We could get lucky this year,” she said. “But it’s going to take a multi-year investment for Democrats to build up the infrastructure, candidate support and messaging for us to break the Republican supermajority in this state in the long run.”
Early voting is currently underway. Election day is Nov. 3.
Jack O’Toole is Statehouse bureau chief for Statehouse Report and the Charleston City Paper. Have a comment? Send to: feedback@statehousereport.com
Mace, Haley blast ‘disgusting’ GOP ad in Ohio
By Jack O’Toole, Statehouse bureau | Again disproving the long-outdated political cliché that all politics is local, two of South Carolina’s best-known Republican women went out of their way this week to denounce a GOP gubernatorial campaign ad that’s running several hundred miles away — in Ohio.
And neither minced any words in the process.
“This ad is going to go down as the most shameful, disgusting, offensive ad this election season,” retiring 1st District Congresswoman Nancy Mace said of the ad by Ohio Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy in a CNN appearance. “I just can’t believe that this is what passes for decency in this election.”
Meanwhile, former S.C. Gov. Nikki Haley was even more caustic, blasting not just the ad, but the candidate behind it.
“He’s a bad guy,” Haley wrote of Ramaswamy on X. “It’s a shame he continues to get away with it.”
The ad, which was backed by both President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance in public comments this week, features the estranged mother of Democratic candidate Amy Acton denouncing her daughter as a “liar.”
The problem? Acton’s mother lost custody of her children in 1978 – yes, 48 years ago – after her husband was arrested for raping the then-12-year-old Acton. And the mother then stayed married to him when he fled the state to avoid prosecution.
“I praise Nikki Haley for speaking out,” Mace said. “I praise other Republicans for speaking out. This is not who we are.”
Mace, whose political career is marked by battles over sexual predators, added she believes that Republicans like Vance who defend the ad now will pay a price in the future.
“This guy was arrested and charged with child rape,” Mace said. “And the idea that the vice president would go to the mattresses to defend this ad might have cost J.D. Vance the presidency.”
Ramaswamy’s campaign has said it’s spending $4 million to promote the ad, which Trump called “so good” in an Oct. 22 social media post.
Acton criticized the ad: “I feel like it was an exploitative thing to do. My mother is not well,” she told CBS station WBNS. “So, I think it’s despicable.”
In other recent news
2026: S.C. attorney general race features candidates with contrasting backgrounds. Republican prosecutor David Stumbo and Democratic civil attorney Richard Hricik are competing to replace longtime Attorney General Alan Wilson, bringing different legal experience, campaign funding strategies and visions for the office to the Nov. 3 election.
- Where the candidates for education superintendent stand on teacher pay
- Democratic nominee Sylvia Wright is making her case to lead South Carolina public schools
- Democrat running for S.C. secretary of state wants to change the office’s duties
- Dorchester Statehouse candidate accused of sending explicit texts to former students
S.C. statesman, storyteller Alex Sanders dies at 88. Alex Sanders, whose gift for spinning a good yarn was celebrated almost as widely as his six decades of public service as a Palmetto State legislator, judge, university president and professor of law, died Tuesday. He was 88.
U.S. SENATE: Protester punched at Trump-Graham rally wants men charged. A viral video appears to show a protester being punched at President Trump’s rally for Sen. Darline Graham — an incident Trump seemed to cheer on from the stage. Now, the protester is looking to file charges.
- ‘She’s you. She’s solid,’ Trump says of Graham
- Norman endorses but won’t campaign with Graham
- Andrews hammers high costs, health care in Myrtle Beach
- Andrews hits 46-county mark; Graham says no talk with Trump on Russia
S.C.-1: Former Republican and a Trump-backed candidate spar in 1st District. Two women have been facing off in recent televised debates as they try to distinguish themselves in the race for the coastal 1st Congressional District, but their desire to replace U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace is about where the similarities end.
FBI reportedly investigated whether Graham, Clyburn were involved in bribery scheme. The FBI investigated whether South Carolina’s late Republican U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham and Democratic U.S. Rep. James Clyburn were involved in a bribery scheme in connection with Hawaiian naval defense contractor Navatek acquiring federal contracts in their home state, according to a report published by ProPublica. In response, a Clyburn spokesman said: “Whatever a donor may think or say, a donation would never cause Congressman Clyburn to increase his support for the donor’s request.”
Several S.C. schools make 2027 top K-8 rankings. U.S. News & World Report has released its 2027 list of the best elementary and middle schools by state. Greenville and Charleston counties stood out among the top 10 in South Carolina.
- K-12 scholarships through federal tax credits start in January
- S.C.’s affordable housing tax loophole is costing schools millions
SCDOT seeks public input on statewide transit plan. The South Carolina Department of Transportation is asking residents across the state to weigh in on a new Statewide Transit Plan that will help guide public transportation policies and investments for the next 25 years.
S.C. files more criminal charges involving pregnancy than any other state, report finds. South Carolina charged at least 381 women with crimes related to their pregnancy over the past three years, far more than any other state, a national advocacy nonprofit found in a report released this week.
New measurement for time
Award-winning cartoonist Robert Ariail has a special knack for shining a light on critical issues in just the right way. This week, he takes a look at time thanks to the White House.
- Love this week’s cartoon or hate it? Did he go too far, or not far enough? Send your thoughts to feedback@statehousereport.com.
Brack: America’s fighting spirit is alive and well
Commentary by Andy Brack | SPOKANE, Wash. | America really is much bigger than you think.
Sure, you’ve heard it, but when you travel for days across a landscape that shifts from coastal plain to barren scrub to rusty mesas and then conifers for as far as the eye can see, you really feel it.
The immense size of this country and how people share more common values than you might think in an age of polarizing Washington politics are two big takeaways from a three-week Listening Across America tour. After more than 4,000 miles from Charleston to Washington state, we’re finally headed east toward home as we hear from more people.
A big lesson so far is that many people seem worried about the high prices of gasoline, food and the increasingly unaffordable other costs of daily living. This common stressor is pulling people together. Democrats are excited about how this year’s November election could shake things up at home and in the nation’s capital. Republicans are less enthusiastic about President Donald Trump’s leadership than in the past, and often admit that having Congress controlled by one party and the White House by another might not be horrible – especially in light of recent political intransigence.
In Utah, for example, a cattle farmer told us he continues to support Trump, but really doesn’t like the policy to buy foreign beef. In that state’s capital, an editor told us Utah Republicans have been considered more middle-of-the-road than most MAGA Republicans and as such, Trump is wearing thin these days. They’re ready to move on, he said.
From El Paso to Spokane, various people worried about ICE raids and the impact they are having on the nation. Others relayed how they desperately want congressional leaders to really talk with each other and reach across the aisle to come up with real solutions – rather than bickering in partisan echo chambers. You can see why former S.C. Gov. David Beasley’s call for people to break bread together to break down barriers seems to be having increasing success.
Here are several other observations that have cropped up in two weeks on the road:
Decency. You still hear about common political flashpoints – improving education and health care – in political discussions. But most everyone seems to want a return to treating people with more decency like how America was before invasive influences of social media.
Water. In South Carolina, we often don’t realize how blessed we are with an abundance of good water. Across much of the country – particularly in the middle of the top and bottom, there are a lot of dry places where plant growth seems a miracle.
Settlers. People in Western agrarian areas seem pretty dang tough, what with the expenses, distances and ongoing challenges with water. Driving across this land makes one marvel at the grit that it took a pioneer family in a wagon headed west from the East Coast. Today, it’s almost unimaginable to think of how tough frontier life was. For example, think about how hard they have to work continually just to find potable water every day in dry conditions on a dusty journey that could take half a year.
Truck drivers. We’ve got a huge new respect for long-haul truckers. It’s hard driving a car 400 to 500 miles a day. Doing the same in a big rig seems heroic.
What’s clear from this trip is there’s no need to make America great again. It always has been. We just need to get back to the basics of respecting the rule of law, working together, fueling the American dream and fighting corruption.
The election is Nov. 3. Get out and vote.
Andy Brack is editor and publisher of Statehouse Report and the Charleston City Paper. Have a comment? Send to: feedback@statehousereport.com.
Peacock
This week as editor Andy Brack continues to travel across the country, we offer this picture taken somewhere along the way. It’s not in South Carolina. Please send in your best guess of where this is – and your name and hometown – to feedback@statehousereport.com. And if you have a mystery photo to share, send that along too (but tell us what it is because we’re horrible guessers.)
Last week’s mystery, “Fountain (not in S.C.)” shows a photo taken at the University of Texas at Austin during editor Andy Brack’s Listening Across America tour.
Congrats to the three veteran sleuths who tracked down the answer: Jay Altman of Columbia; Allan Peel of San Antonio, Texas; and George Graf of Palmyra, Va.
- SHARE: If you have a Mystery Photo to share, please send it to us – and make sure you tell us what it is!
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Statehouse Report, founded in 2001 as a weekly legislative forecast that informs readers about what is going to happen in South Carolina politics and policy, is provided by email to you at no charge every Friday.
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- Statehouse bureau chief: Jack O’Toole
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