The midterm elections in November are shaping up to be a tipping point for change nationally, but in South Carolina? Maybe not so much.
Across the nation in red, blue and purple states, it’s not uncommon to see big rallies for candidates who want to shake up the system. People are frustrated by the high costs of gas, health care, housing and the price of eggs. They’re angry because of corruption and double-dealing in Washington, ICE, neglect of the rule of law and a general disregard by both parties of getting real things done to help regular people. The swamp, it appears, has just gotten swampier.
Nationally, recent polling shows a Democratic candidate holds a seven-point advantage over a Republican candidate in a generic U.S. House district. That’s similar to just before the galvanizing 2018 congressional midterms when Democrats gained a net total of 40 seats — 17 more than the 23 they needed to flip the House.
Right now, Republicans hold a shaky, razor-thin majority, controlling 219 of 435 seats with four vacancies. Democrats have 212 seats. But with the scent of change burning, most pundits expect the House to flip control in November. But any change isn’t expected to be as dramatic as eight years ago because Republicans in 2022 and this year shored up their strength through unusual and blatant redistricting efforts.
“Gerrymandering puts a lot of members of Congress in safe seats that otherwise would be in danger,” said Winthrop University pollster Scott Huffmon. In the Senate, where Republicans also hold a narrow majority, only a third of the seats are up for reelection. It may not flip to Democratic control, he said, due to a bias toward incumbents.
Nevertheless, many frustrated voters may not want to turn out incumbents because they’re Democratic or Republican. Rather, 2026 may be an election of change because people are mad at both parties and want a change agent from another party, whichever it is.
“The new attitude is anti-institutional,” Huffmon said, “especially the current younger folks who are fed up with hyper-partisan politics. It is less about the policies than about the parties themselves, which they think are focused on undermining the other party and not working for the good of the people.”
If the 2026 midterm elections are a national referendum on power and institutions in Washington, it might be good to ask how that would look in South Carolina, where all constitutional officers are Republican and both chambers of the General Assembly are dominated by Republicans.
The answer, in short, is that 2026 won’t be as much of a “change” election in South Carolina.
More than likely, the balance of power will stay mostly the same. Three races, however, might signal a slow movement toward change.
Change could drift our way if Dr. Annie Andrews beats the still unknown Republican challenger in the race for U.S. Senate.
Change could come if retired Admiral Nancy Lacore is successful in stoking anti-establishment sentiment in the First Congressional District race against GOP candidate Jenny Honeycutt.
And change may be headed here if Democratic challenger and banker Vincent Coe snags a victory against GOP State Treasure Curtis Loftis, who some fellow Republicans wanted to fire for incompetence related to billions of dollars of accounting errors.
Hang on for a wild ride.
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